Sahtekarlık Değilse, Ne? / Mustafa Sönmez

<h1><a href=http://www.ivmedergisi.com/node/6892>Sahtekarlık Değilse, Ne? /
Mustafa Sönmez</a></h1><p>&nbsp;</p>
<p class="rtejustify" style="background-image: initial;
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">İşg&uuml;c&uuml;-işsizlik verileri ile ilgili yapılan a&ccedil;ıklama,
Mart ayı işsizliğinin y&uuml;zde 10,8&rsquo;e
d&uuml;şt&uuml;ğ&uuml;n&uuml; g&ouml;steriyor. İşsizlik azalıyor
teranesi i&ccedil;in T&Uuml;İK&rsquo;ten &ldquo;goll&uuml;k pas&rdquo;,
&nbsp;RTE&rsquo;nin sesi, damadın gazetesi&nbsp;<strong
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">Sabah</strong>&rsquo;ta manşet olmuş: &ldquo;<em style="background-image:
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baseline; font-style: italic; background-position: initial initial;
background-repeat: initial initial; ">Martta işsizlik y&uuml;zde
10.8&prime;e indi. Mevsim etkileri arındırıldığında rakam y&uuml;zde
9.9&prime;a geliyor. B&ouml;ylece 48 ay sonra ilk kez tek haneli işsizlik
rakamlarına gelindi&rdquo;</em>&hellip;</p>
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">Duy da inanma&hellip;Oysa her zamanki gibi, ortada nal gibi&nbsp;<strong
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">&ldquo;tarımla işsizliği kamufle
etme&rdquo;</strong>&nbsp;ger&ccedil;eği var. 2011 Mart&rsquo;ından geriye,
2010 Mart&rsquo;ına sardığımızda, işsizliğin 3 puan gerilediği ve 1
milyon 545 bin kişiye istihdam yaratıldığı iddiası var. İşte burada,
ayrıntı ve ayrıntıda saklanan şeytanı bulup &ccedil;ıkarmak gerekiyor.
Hemen&nbsp;<strong style="background-image: initial; background-attachment:
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">tarıma</strong>&nbsp;bakıyoruz. Tarımda istihdam ne kadar artmış?
Sıkı durun; &nbsp;bir ayda bile ger&ccedil;ekleşmiş g&ouml;r&uuml;nen 484
bin istihdam artışının&nbsp;<strong style="background-image: initial;
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initial; background-color: transparent; border-top-width: 0px;
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font-weight: bold; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat:
initial initial; ">y&uuml;zde 44&rsquo;&uuml; tarımdan</strong>!&hellip;
T&Uuml;İK&rsquo;e bakılırsa, bu Mart ayında Şubat&rsquo;a g&ouml;re
tarım istihdamı 213 bin kişi artmış. Hem de y&uuml;zde 53&rsquo;&uuml;
tarım &uuml;cretlisi olarak!&hellip;</p>
<p class="rtejustify" style="background-image: initial;
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">Yıllık olarak bakarsak 1,5 milyon istihdam artışının&nbsp;<strong
style="background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial;
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">y&uuml;zde 40&rsquo;a yakını</strong>, yani 590 bini&nbsp;
tarımdan!&hellip;Olamaz mı? Olamaz. Nasıl olsun?&nbsp;<strong
style="background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial;
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">Tarımda b&uuml;y&uuml;me var mı ki, istihdam artışı
olsun</strong>&hellip; 2008-2010 d&ouml;nemi tarımda b&uuml;y&uuml;me
ortalaması yıllık y&uuml;zde 3, ama istihdamda yıllık artış y&uuml;zde
5,2&hellip;Olacak iş değil. Nitekim, aklı başında kimse de bu olabilir
demiyor artık&hellip;Her ay işg&uuml;c&uuml;-istihdam verilerini analiz
eden Bah&ccedil;eşehir &Uuml;niversitesi&rsquo;nin&nbsp;<strong
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">Betam</strong>&rsquo;ı bile, bu ayın analizinde tamamen tarım dışını
muhatap alıp tarım meselesine bulaşmamayı tercih etmiş. Ama b&ouml;yle
ka&ccedil;ak g&uuml;reşmek de olmuyor. Neden sorgulama yok?</p>
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"></p>
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initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; "><a
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"><img alt="" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-726 rtejustify"
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"><em style="background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial;
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">Kaynak:T&Uuml;İK, B&uuml;y&uuml;me ve istihdam veri tabanı</em></p>
<p class="rtejustify" style="background-image: initial;
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initial; background-color: transparent; border-top-width: 0px;
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">Tarımdaki bu T&Uuml;İK sa&ccedil;malığının bir g&uuml;n son
bulacağını umut etmek nafile. Bu plağı &ccedil;alıp alemi k&ouml;r
milleti sersem saymaya devam edecekleri belli. Tarımı kullanarak saklanan
işsizlikten sonra, resmi işsiz sayısı 2 milyon 816 bine inmiş
g&ouml;r&uuml;n&uuml;yor. Bu da y&uuml;zde 10,8 resmi işsizlik demek. Ama,
umudunu kaybetmiş, sayılmayan işsizlere baktığımızda , orada 2 milyon
284 bin kişi var. Resmi işsizlere eklerseniz&nbsp;<strong
style="background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial;
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0px; padding-left: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold;
background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; ">5
milyon 100 bin</strong>&nbsp;kişi ediyor. Yani ger&ccedil;ek işsiz
sayısı, tarımdaki kamuflaja rağmen, 5 milyon 100 bin. Bu da&nbsp;<strong
style="background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial;
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">ger&ccedil;ek işsizliğin y&uuml;zde 18</strong>&nbsp;olması demek.
B&uuml;y&uuml;meyen tarımda artmış g&ouml;sterilen 590 bin istihdamı
işsiz kabul ederseniz, ger&ccedil;ek işsizlik oranı&nbsp;<strong
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">y&uuml;zde 20&rsquo;yi aşıyor</strong>. Son olarak soralım; entansif
tarımın yaygınlaştığı, makine kullanımının arttığı tarım ve
hayvancılıkta, b&uuml;y&uuml;me temposu y&uuml;zde 1-2&rsquo;lerde
dolaşırken tarım istihdamını y&uuml;zde 7-8 artmış g&ouml;stermenin
izahı ne ? Bu bir&nbsp;<strong style="background-image: initial;
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initial; background-color: transparent; border-top-width: 0px;
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font-weight: bold; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat:
initial initial; ">sahtekarlık değilse, ne</strong>?</p>
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">***</p>
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">Tarım dışına kafamızı &ccedil;evirdiğimizde, orada istihdam durumu
nedir? &nbsp;Tarım dışında, &ouml;zellikle&nbsp;<strong
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">imalat sanayi ve inşaat</strong>-gayrimenkul alanı, istihdam yaratmış
g&ouml;r&uuml;n&uuml;yor. İmalat sanayiinde yeni istihdam 12 ayda 417 bin
artmış. İnşaatta da &ouml;nceki Mart ayına g&ouml;re 177 bin istihdam
artışı var. Buna bir de gayrimenkuldeki 70 bin k&uuml;sur istihdam
artışını eklersek sekt&ouml;rdeki istihdam artışı 250 bine
yaklaşıyor. Yani, yıllık tarım dışı istihdamın y&uuml;zde 70&rsquo;i
imalat sanayi ve inşaat sekt&ouml;r&uuml;nden kaynaklanmış
g&ouml;r&uuml;n&uuml;yor.</p>
<p class="rtejustify" style="background-image: initial;
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">Tehlikeli boyutta cari a&ccedil;ık veren b&uuml;y&uuml;menin yol
a&ccedil;tığı bu istihdam artışı &ouml;n&uuml;m&uuml;zdeki aylarda
s&uuml;recek mi? İşte bu zor&hellip;Milli gelirin&nbsp;<strong
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">y&uuml;zde 8</strong>&rsquo;ine kadar tırmanan&nbsp;<strong
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">cari a&ccedil;ıkla&nbsp;</strong>hop oturur hop kalkar oldu meşhur
&ldquo;piyasalar&rdquo;. Değerlendirme kuruluşları &ldquo;<strong
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">notunuz d&uuml;şebilir</strong>&rdquo; diye aba altından sopa
g&ouml;sterip duruyorlar. Hem para, hem maliye politikalarında vidaları
sıkılaştırmak zorunda kalacak olan &nbsp;AKP iktidarı,
b&uuml;y&uuml;mede yavaşlamaya, t&uuml;ketimi kısmaya, dolayısıyla
istihdamdaki g&ouml;reli canlanma temposunu da d&uuml;ş&uuml;rmeye yol
a&ccedil;an bir hedefe d&uuml;men kıracak. &Ouml;n&uuml;m&uuml;zdeki Nisan,
Mayıs istihdam verileri g&uuml;l&uuml;msetse de sonrası i&ccedil;in bunu
s&ouml;ylemek zorlaşacak. Ama muhalefet partileri &nbsp;hesap sormazsa,
d&uuml;r&uuml;st, namuslu analistler, yorumcular,&nbsp;<strong
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">&ldquo;Sahtekarlık değilse, ne?&rdquo;</strong>diye yakalarına
yapışmazsa, tarım, T&Uuml;İK&rsquo;in elinde, işsizliği
d&uuml;ş&uuml;k g&ouml;stermeye yarayan bir&nbsp; kamuflaj malzemesi olarak
kullanılmaya devam edecek.</p>
<p class="rtejustify" style="background-image: initial;
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"><strong>Kaynak:&nbsp;http://mustafasonmez.net</strong></p>